World Politics · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd968c9407cc8d8250ea15af42e96673a253d47a7db9d73703a7fa06c4fe18336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 65c | 2,922$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.5 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 39c | 2,779$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 63c | 2,045$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.6 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 63c | 996.2$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.81 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 73c | 821.12$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.12 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 799.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 62c | 754.69$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.19 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 61c | 621$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 29c | 442.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 360.65$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 39c | 311$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 37c | 299.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 36c | 294.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 25c | 229.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…447cbacked No | 75c | 198.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 32c | 193.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 32c | 184.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…2123backed No | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 70c | 150.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 137.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 22c | 134.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…4260backed Yes | 38c | 129.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 78c | 129.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 72c | 120.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 68c | 114.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Yes | 30c | 100.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…46d0backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…97f8backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ed…1db7backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 76.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…ba75backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 25c | 71.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edd…4edfbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 58c | 70.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 70.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 57.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 62c | 29.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…a0e4backed No | 67c | 27.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…b50bbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 76c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…f5bebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed No | 79c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…8a18backed No | 78c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5388backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.