TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-05?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$177,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes0c19,649$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.45520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes10c19,116$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.0479639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52e4…1b25backed Yes32c5,963$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504553.3%24 W · 21 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+55.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes9c4,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40541437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes5c3,825$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2779650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes3c3,375$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.255635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked No67c3,032$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.354560%27 W · 18 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+97.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4167…2427backed Yes10c2,965$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.511435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e6…801bbacked Yes11c2,609$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70014342.7%61 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x330c…2371backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes12c1,977$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.274833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb9a…0c21backed Yes17c1,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…3601backed Yes12c1,735$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e30…ef89backed Yes8c1,700$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No42c1,363$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.6119743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xcac2…d644backed Yes8c1,322$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.36955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c04…7cf3backed Yes13c1,303$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe40c…0e36backed Yes46c1,275$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x549f…c945backed Yes10c1,240$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.61040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1218…366bbacked Yes58c1,200$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6961741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc047…889cbacked Yes8c1,182$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes4c1,118$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc909…636ebacked No63c1,115$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadff…e3f3backed Yes16c1,056$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.11741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed No79c1,011$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.0421463.1%135 W · 79 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12044939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb680…c893backed Yes10c1,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.463613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes9c999.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017837.6%67 W · 111 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04c…b6ccbacked No72c978.51$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.631080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f12…7dcbbacked Yes12c964.42$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb23b…922ebacked Yes10c866.75$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686e…af8cbacked Yes13c782.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008825%22 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes3c709$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-66.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3add…11b5backed Yes11c685.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.43122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0206…82b5backed Yes11c570.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes13c558.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.883020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x420b…c128backed Yes13c528$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c466.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9866031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes30c450$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1355653.6%30 W · 26 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+64.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes7c431.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.19100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af3…a870backed Yes12c423.42$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36e…ad3abacked Yes8c416.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.343633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…5b06backed Yes11c371.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbfc…0655backed Yes23c356.38$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe890…e932backed Yes6c354.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025637.9%97 W · 159 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a31…fed2backed Yes12c328.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4890…0968backed No62c323.5$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.935747.4%27 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x410b…399bbacked Yes9c304.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6d…f360backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa25…34bebacked Yes58c263.3$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e66…4383backed Yes10c262.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.221030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6956…c37fbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253070%21 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b93…9915backed Yes12c246.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…853bbacked Yes12c241.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8de…e12abacked Yes11c231$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No74c228.77$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7737652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed No72c212$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3636954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x96e3…83d2backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…ae05backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x766e…c49cbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ee8…c2e5backed Yes16c192.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6e…9d3dbacked Yes12c181.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7040…7ee6backed Yes11c179.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d18…3ae2backed Yes11c177$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes14c171.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0613547.4%64 W · 71 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Yes15c167.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522932.3%74 W · 155 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012623%29 W · 97 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbf3…cf5dbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2174…6de5backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes11c149.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4117945.8%82 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5594…c0b2backed Yes11c141.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.572326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes12c140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85630.4%17 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e98…37dcbacked Yes12c127.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x035d…3b77backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65dc…0b11backed Yes15c123.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.592416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce86…f868backed Yes19c114.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.759334.4%32 W · 61 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes18c112.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026247.7%125 W · 137 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f0…90f4backed Yes12c110.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.222737%10 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ff2…1c10backed No57c105.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.75949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes12c104.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.592330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3077…d230backed Yes11c102.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcca…ad36backed Yes10c102$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb90d…7db5backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123040%12 W · 18 L-7.7wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-41.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c17…9b2dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+118%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf26…609fbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb606…80f6backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe234…a285backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103826.3%10 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc372…00aabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106743.3%29 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb65d…3757backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf433…ab76backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2388…efb1backed Yes12c93.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1752…9ababacked Yes13c92.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe121…1d13backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+230.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.