TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$788,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$930,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cda…6e17backed No55c124,428$68,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,685.199450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes43c66,079$28,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,789.6514544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes46c65,159$29,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,210.8420039.5%79 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes44c64,676$28,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,218.814447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes44c56,000$24,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,199.86357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed No61c55,749$33,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,955.2210357.3%59 W · 44 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No56c49,236$27,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,572.253050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No54c47,172$25,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,473.1117958.1%104 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes46c38,722$17,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,962.121,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No55c38,443$21,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,326.6621154.5%115 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes44c28,416$12,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,797.131526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No55c23,950$13,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,132.8330851.3%158 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No55c22,944$12,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,606.6935758%207 W · 150 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes47c19,040$8,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,091.439242.4%39 W · 53 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No56c17,837$10,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,035.767256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed No58c16,500$9,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5852853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes37c14,366$5,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,044.9113834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No54c14,042$7,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,522.8422744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No54c13,822$7,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,463.6120140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes45c12,970$5,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,162.9527235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked No56c11,981$6,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,713.773060%18 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70024846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes43c9,663$4,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,508.041172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18b2…c1bebacked Yes44c9,091$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,090.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3b…4253backed No3c7,254$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.61166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No54c6,541$3,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500.5490751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes37c6,500$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,11517234.3%59 W · 113 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…91dabacked Yes46c6,401$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.9640046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No54c5,512$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.4910849.1%53 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Yes46c5,435$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.789636.5%35 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No54c5,371$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.1146651.9%242 W · 224 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No64c5,252$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.4851542.5%219 W · 296 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes48c5,209$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5110…2695backed Yes45c5,024$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+72.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85032037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No47c4,760$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.9356453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No53c4,518$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.5831944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc478…d2e2backed Yes45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.444348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3210848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28032158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No64c3,966$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.128736.2%104 W · 183 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No70c3,758$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.3441344.8%185 W · 228 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No56c3,417$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90124566.1%162 W · 83 L+24.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No54c3,398$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.9410455.8%58 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x434e…a307backed No57c3,288$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes23c3,052$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.941315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5909148.4%44 W · 47 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74041437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62037054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21da…db76backed No55c2,721$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes45c2,711$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.119537.9%36 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes43c2,703$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.151,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No54c2,692$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.555054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No55c2,581$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.9321353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed No55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3753834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked No55c2,185$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8931655.1%174 W · 142 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes44c2,099$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.46630.3%20 W · 46 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes49c2,030$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0304746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed No56c2,022$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.2810159.4%60 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed No56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1201747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No55c1,933$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.944,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed Yes46c1,927$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.082744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes45c1,909$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.513948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes45c1,892$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.962147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No72c1,858$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.2815049.3%74 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d70…f478backed Yes46c1,802$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f91…9388backed Yes45c1,722$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.225750.9%29 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No56c1,718$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.2428070%196 W · 84 L+49.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+54.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Yes45c1,544$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.24450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Yes46c1,532$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.183871.1%27 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+37.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No57c1,505$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.7925329.2%74 W · 179 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes22c1,500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1702352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No55c1,495$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.256,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes48c1,421$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.6937840.5%153 W · 225 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Yes46c1,361$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.871931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No54c1,347$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.6479639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Yes47c1,280$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.653231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98cc…7470backed Yes49c1,187$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.452254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f92…b5f8backed Yes47c1,126$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.53837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes45c1,100$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6011338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…62c5backed Yes25c1,098$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70af…26fdbacked Yes46c1,091$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.834729.8%14 W · 33 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes43c1,021$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.774531.1%14 W · 31 L-8.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes45c1,018$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.275944.1%26 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fce…28f8backed Yes46c1,010$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f4…5781backed Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5502850%14 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…1feabacked Yes44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5605160.8%31 W · 20 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes46c999.99$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.9944939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f0…6fb4backed No54c999.92$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9611750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No53c989.83$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.0149254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x261a…2989backed Yes44c952.86$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No55c940.7$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.5740953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked No54c925.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.746747.8%32 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed No55c920.67$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.5120744%91 W · 116 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No56c910.67$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50629458.2%171 W · 123 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Yes45c888.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.8912446%57 W · 67 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No55c888.04$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.583459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed Yes45c864.45$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.791118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-59.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Yes30c856$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.4845936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.