TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military strike against Iran in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$310,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$370,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes30c102,070$30,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,369.482015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No79c41,667$32,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,748.681275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No72c29,795$21,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,339.723243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c7…32cbbacked Yes2c19,221$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.181546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes16c13,008$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.461346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf952…6d26backed Yes57c11,234$6,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No60c9,742$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,942.1215743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7c…74c2backed No75c8,943$6,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick59cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No75c8,396$6,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.962766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No66c6,611$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.312458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No71c4,504$3,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.036137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No27c4,372$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,172.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc15f…650abacked No65c4,128$2,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd10…9337backed Yes7c2,857$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No77c2,851$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.810139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c2,624$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No63c2,577$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.693759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes27c2,563$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.6451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No61c2,555$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.17955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes20c2,308$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.7126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed41…49edbacked No69c2,259$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.98666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes18c1,982$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.557311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…0843backed No76c1,973$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.69560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No78c1,896$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.172552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No66c1,800$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No65c1,700$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.312263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf724…a68bbacked No60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No57c1,608$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.872157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No76c1,558$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.972445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c1,508$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed No69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4652343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3373…dc6dbacked Yes34c1,480$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+173.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ead…8b4cbacked No74c1,400$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed No61c1,352$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.161758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No56c1,333$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.193154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes45c1,165$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.266420.3%13 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c1,110$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No69c1,106$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.881931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x343e…9c57backed No76c1,100$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No78c1,092$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.515354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1953…5607backed No69c1,043$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3102045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d11…6645backed Yes8c920.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes33c849.65$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.085425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes38c807.94$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.283324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3528844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe241…29febacked No56c700.38$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6094…c4eabacked No74c659.46$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x138d…4bc0backed No77c648.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.961369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes8c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed No54c596.3$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.71190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick65cpaid+47.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c570.31$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes7c565$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.210444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda08…2abdbacked Yes4c537.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed Yes16c527.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No63c500.11$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.021942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6050…80d6backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc45…2957backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes30c496.77$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.03825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed No65c480.83$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…e767backed No57c451.64$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c444.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.644912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No69c435.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.087548%36 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9627…432fbacked No57c431.99$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2b3…9856backed No66c417.52$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672564%16 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea9f…045dbacked Yes42c404.76$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2948…788abacked No22c400$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3123560%21 W · 14 L+8.0wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+69.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc803…4cefbacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes16c400$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.56615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa2…0204backed No71c371.03$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.511163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac68…a3ebbacked No68c363.68$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8e…df64backed No71c361$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.69475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No76c330.74$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.891866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e46…9c3bbacked No60c325$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes46c323.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes26c318.04$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes20c300.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.838515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes28c300.07$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.023716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked No70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf55…9acebacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c5…d5a0backed Yes44c271.44$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed No75c267.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.892650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No41c265.66$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.829831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe30…a838backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4117…a439backed No70c252.91$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec60…128bbacked Yes41c243.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88bd…c952backed No55c243.15$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.424100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7892…85c3backed Yes14c218.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6db8…b5b0backed No68c207.18$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x112d…86b2backed No64c206.68$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No60c202.4$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.44926.5%13 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66cc…01adbacked No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5971…bec3backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.