TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$396,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$489,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x017c…563dbacked Yes9c20,329$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.5660%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c9…22debacked Yes4c12,618$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes7c12,512$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.77659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes12c11,939$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.43839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a7…57a0backed Yes2c11,833$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2007…e485backed Yes3c11,670$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0f…42d9backed Yes2c11,025$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes12c7,873$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.995034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes47c7,334$3,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,456.172832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87d9…fcb6backed Yes3c7,278$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ce…a74cbacked Yes1c7,160$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…e2c6backed Yes9c6,238$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.75933.2%3 W · 90 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c5,424$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.181,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No65c4,400$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.7313863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes2c3,635$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.751488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes33c3,535$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.237328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f9d…dd7cbacked Yes3c3,330$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780520%0 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed No80c2,879$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.91361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No77c2,806$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.363764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb27c…cfeabacked Yes2c2,526$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes11c2,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27318315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0922…aad8backed Yes32c2,479$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes10c2,372$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.153315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed No64c2,314$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.14759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef10…0b43backed No73c2,298$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.4621726.7%58 W · 159 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes7c2,200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1448010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x622b…c6cbbacked No79c2,181$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.66100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c1,624$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.911431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,520$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.851693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8871…830abacked Yes36c1,307$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.77020%14 W · 56 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd38a…52c0backed Yes7c1,182$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.26647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes2c1,145$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-93%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd448…a724backed Yes43c1,084$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.17100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d3…9b5dbacked No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2104100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes3c990.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.75110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c930.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.942999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af9…3737backed Yes3c922.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes2c912.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa853…da85backed No77c872.43$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.661883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b47…5ed8backed Yes12c837.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e51…3c15backed Yes3c768.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d8…6698backed Yes3c700.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf159…230fbacked No54c667$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe58f…a52bbacked Yes27c654$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.54825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a48…5515backed Yes25c649.22$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.66150%0 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ca…6038backed No74c633$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.71883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes2c618.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56320%0 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c3…cd76backed Yes35c599.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20740%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes6c510$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.74163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c96…e4b4backed Yes3c508.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfd…6b71backed No77c506$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.43988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+24.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63aa…a9ccbacked No54c499$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.541485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5301…0f15backed No71c458.66$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.74100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb3d…bd57backed Yes3c453.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00f4…3eedbacked Yes21c390.13$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0148…141ebacked Yes25c383.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf75…7623backed Yes4c327.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c42…62fabacked Yes11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe056…d356backed No64c298.92$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dbd…6d1cbacked No63c298.79$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a2…a3c3backed Yes36c278.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002313%3 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes15c251.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.647835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ae…e3bebacked Yes9c246.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf5…e611backed Yes14c232.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7578…e5dabacked Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe35d…a9d9backed Yes7c220.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdafe…67b2backed No74c204.97$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…46d1backed Yes38c197.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x70fb…9ce2backed No63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick65cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cd…2e45backed Yes9c116.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd63d…5f12backed Yes35c115.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d24…06a2backed No77c111$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x694e…8d20backed Yes47c109.87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba84…20cabacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71a…1bb6backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+35.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes22c91.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8870…5259backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e88…caf0backed Yes29c68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7250%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa5…db35backed Yes32c63.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22df…ed56backed No65c61.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ced…43a8backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…3fb2backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.421236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd047…7678backed No80c13.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.