Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0021dd395f83e1c51f3c8a889b8548e178e6028fe2972790642b89b08d384c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 67c | 8,000$5,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 34c | 7,567$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.87 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 20c | 1,899$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.92 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 66c | 1,290$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.4 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…9679backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…e719backed Yes | 55c | 183.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0207…d86cbacked No | 47c | 183.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…5e9ebacked No | 46c | 182.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…c7c5backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.