Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ae4ffee442cc7e1f4156ae53d1e48e0969bdbd8002aca2900bc8e576eef670f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 32c | 3,854$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.37 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 78c | 1,796$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.72 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed No | 18c | 1,026$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 54c | 444.65$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.11 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 71c | 73.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…298dbacked Yes | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…052bbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…cf69backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.