Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b5b5f8f21fc8f4f1f6e38f108081d090bb85ac16bac4bc8b8f1668291b1d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 9c | 28,933$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38f…2cb6backed Yes | 1c | 15,491$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 75c | 13,430$10,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.92 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8406backed Yes | 5c | 12,600$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…d0a8backed Yes | 45c | 10,038$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 1c | 7,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,325$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…d709backed Yes | 0c | 5,008$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,818$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.89 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 23c | 3,750$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526c…cfabbacked Yes | 5c | 3,086$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +274.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b53…708bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…daf3backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 5c | 1,480$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed No | 80c | 1,300$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59b…9af3backed Yes | 2c | 1,064$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 3c | 944.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 5c | 816.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Yes | 3c | 754.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed No | 73c | 685.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 70c | 650$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…1d7dbacked Yes | 4c | 567.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…96e2backed No | 75c | 458.95$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…a3a5backed Yes | 4c | 446.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…d71ebacked No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 40c | 230$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.14 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 4c | 222.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…e528backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…298dbacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…aad0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…e096backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…4c41backed Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…5999backed Yes | 68c | 42.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…5727backed Yes | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.