Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4863a47f6919d0527000dcbad1d8fa552c9264a8d14eba5fd0878d5ef69917f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40a…0aaebacked No | 1c | 26,930$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 68c | 16,533$11,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,241.13 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 8c | 10,816$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,940.21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…b14ebacked No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…d0a8backed Yes | 16c | 6,056$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,113.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 47c | 5,014$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.73 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 21c | 4,320$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.49 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 6c | 4,167$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,916.67 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…48e6backed Yes | 13c | 3,846$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,346.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 33c | 3,468$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.42 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 31c | 2,697$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.38 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,609$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.51 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,247$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,750$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Yes | 6c | 1,561$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb6…b5f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +1,546.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 13c | 1,110$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.25 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 68c | 1,001$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.31 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 31c | 900$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 711$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.45 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 45c | 700$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 620.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…0d85backed Yes | 5c | 603.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +575%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed No | 56c | 500$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b53…708bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.8 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526c…cfabbacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.67 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +274.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 5c | 394.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0f…2e32backed Yes | 5c | 387.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,838.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 5c | 381.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.09 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…298dbacked Yes | 20c | 360$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…b7b2backed Yes | 4c | 340.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…d71ebacked No | 34c | 297.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 78c | 280$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…10b7backed Yes | 6c | 276$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…a765backed Yes | 22c | 205$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +363%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…db20backed Yes | 21c | 204.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +1,148.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…93dabacked No | 78c | 203.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…2312backed Yes | 21c | 182$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +367.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…424ebacked Yes | 11c | 180.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 18c | 169.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a0…ee9ebacked No | 75c | 169$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…1d3cbacked No | 25c | 167.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 59c | 142.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…8386backed Yes | 8c | 137.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +526.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa92…0d27backed No | 36c | 134.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…a303backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d8…a285backed Yes | 11c | 99.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +538.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…1339backed Yes | 21c | 96.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0297backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 48c | 80.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…b7a0backed Yes | 23c | 60.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 78c | 41.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…9cebbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.