Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x144ed6062b3a1455f2973b1333824cd95ab16c07259ad6cc9ad0b417e1c1b55e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,361$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 6c | 5,993$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7dd5backed No | 78c | 5,528$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…10b7backed Yes | 2c | 3,817$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 8c | 3,509$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.22 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 4c | 3,401$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 22c | 2,432$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 6c | 2,374$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 7c | 1,205$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,083$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839b…6f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 984.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…00c4backed Yes | 5c | 850$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 23c | 600$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…b7b2backed Yes | 3c | 555.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…dbf7backed Yes | 6c | 400.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 5c | 193.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…5b1bbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.