Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6f2cb74f8966967c5cfb5b9a99b9184ce4066350a9c93b81c44bd8bbfdfd57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 16,547$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed No | 57c | 5,649$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 31c | 4,575$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.23 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,157$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.89 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 57c | 2,954$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.33 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…dfc3backed Yes | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 65c | 2,500$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 15c | 1,139$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 40c | 1,056$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.29 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 4c | 705.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 43c | 621.51$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.38 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 30c | 593.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 50c | 449$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…e079backed No | 79c | 293.14$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 32c | 125.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 22c | 122.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…5b1bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…4e38backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d435backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…db3dbacked No | 69c | 41.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 78c | 35.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 43c | 32.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…59b1backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.