Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32c8860948b518f2b875266c01104f456fd68a5d503067c2eaa7042d63931fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,764$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…d844backed Yes | 0c | 6,440$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…0938backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…0d85backed Yes | 1c | 4,912$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +575%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 74c | 1,916$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.2 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…1d21backed Yes | 2c | 1,376$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 1,246$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 8c | 779.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…2850backed Yes | 12c | 508.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 31c | 358.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…5b1bbacked Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.