Us Politics · resolved market
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d54e3a3c4a037c238fd28cb75b1202a2486087cd4afc8cbfc7a38958827e5b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Yes | 11c | 39,132$4,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,188.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 3c | 35,015$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.7 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2e03backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 4c | 10,040$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.75 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 9,151$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 6c | 8,137$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.86 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 7,509$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.76 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,982$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 3,807$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,765$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 20c | 3,406$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 3c | 2,492$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 9c | 2,480$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.67 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed Yes | 6c | 2,465$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,165$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 3c | 2,090$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,052$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,008$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…3a5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 6c | 1,979$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 3c | 1,859$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,821$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…1b93backed Yes | 1c | 1,428$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 1,365$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 16c | 1,332$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 6c | 1,286$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,269$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,266$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 20c | 1,203$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 1,047$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 7c | 1,020$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739e…00fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 27c | 984.84$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 785.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 16c | 741.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…9406backed Yes | 3c | 678.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 10c | 649$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 4c | 611.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e92…395abacked Yes | 3c | 579.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 79c | 529.79$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 7c | 526$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 22c | 450$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 383.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 28c | 363.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…5554backed Yes | 11c | 336$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 15c | 315.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 75c | 305$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…56acbacked Yes | 10c | 209.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 75c | 172.43$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 15c | 161.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…6096backed Yes | 29c | 136.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 10c | 121.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed No | 78c | 119.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 100.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 15c | 80.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 16c | 67.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed No | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?this page
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Yes won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.