Us Politics · resolved market
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd722fcf2a6ce0dc8c4ee813092940d3206dfc47cb342265b0b96fd89e74a4ee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 25c | 9,987$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.32 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 52c | 8,430$4,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.8 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 30c | 7,695$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,361.08 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…e030backed No | 47c | 6,526$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 62c | 4,531$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.37 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 20c | 3,815$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067.75 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 10c | 3,770$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.93 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 16c | 2,594$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.02 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 40c | 2,395$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No | 12c | 2,000$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.17 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 12c | 1,856$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.68 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 52c | 1,701$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.49 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 67c | 1,296$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.98 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 71c | 1,261$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.37 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed Yes | 18c | 1,134$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 10c | 898.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.99 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 21c | 870.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.72 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 74c | 800$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked No | 41c | 564.71$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed No | 50c | 550$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 56c | 543.88$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed No | 72c | 530.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 20c | 467.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.05 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 9c | 450$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 25c | 395.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.25 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 67c | 353.62$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 330$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.09 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 46c | 323$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.84 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 73c | 300.78$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 32c | 276.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.21 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 12c | 271.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.65 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 26c | 270.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 53c | 260.83$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 244.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 17c | 202.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…05e2backed No | 74c | 196.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 59c | 182$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes | 78c | 171.06$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 30c | 167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 45c | 166.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 15c | 150.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 138.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 44c | 130.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 48c | 129$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 78c | 110.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 14c | 106.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 17c | 102.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 70c | 99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 63c | 72.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 45c | 61.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 56c | 60.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 54.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…3670backed Yes | 68c | 37.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 45c | 33.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 77c | 27.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?this page
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Yes won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.