Us Politics · resolved market
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x018534574e5575f33d143ba93f4d87a5b95e33a33ee12e56d5fd699e5a6d95e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 4c | 16,599$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,987.32 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 21c | 6,250$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,959.5 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 34c | 2,857$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.54 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 48c | 1,730$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.23 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No | 8c | 1,600$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 45c | 1,583$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.51 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 38c | 1,454$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.92 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed No | 71c | 1,316$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 15c | 1,292$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.3 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 69c | 1,156$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.4 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 52c | 1,051$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.54 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 9c | 691.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.68 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 25c | 533$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 477.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.32 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 45c | 400$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 61c | 352.46$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 56c | 350$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 45c | 329.66$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 41c | 311.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 80c | 273.59$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 9c | 259.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.67 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 63c | 233.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 224$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 40c | 216.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 56c | 213.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 13c | 202$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 20c | 130$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 56c | 123.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes | 44c | 107.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 18c | 100.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed No | 73c | 95.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 55c | 62.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 45c | 62.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 75c | 56.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…c37cbacked No | 52c | 52.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?this page
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.