World Politics · resolved market
Will Ranil Wickremesinghe win the Sri Lankan presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d2cadd8b81911786677eeeee4c8af0b4120becc993fc30474f35223750de87d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 19c | 563.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc06e…91ddbacked Yes | 9c | 541.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 10c | 504.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 11c | 493.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9aeebacked Yes | 12c | 482.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 12c | 461.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 22c | 395.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…298bbacked Yes | 13c | 383.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 79c | 376.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 8c | 360.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…fae2backed Yes | 9c | 237.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 195$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 14c | 168$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403b…7b70backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…308bbacked Yes | 43c | 65.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…89b9backed Yes | 20c | 59.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 55.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 25c | 55.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x249d…b3c3backed No | 79c | 40.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ranil Wickremesinghe win the Sri Lankan presidential election?this page
- Will Anura Dissanayake win the Sri Lankan presidential election?Yes won
- Will Sajith Premadasa win the Sri Lankan presidential election?No won
- Will another candidate win the Sri Lankan presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.