World Politics · resolved market
Will Sajith Premadasa win the Sri Lankan presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591fb194a3fdfa77506e79602af103ba16ca5663ac2b16ec4d96c2f1a30466f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 10c | 3,109$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 4c | 1,386$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,273$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked No | 70c | 973.1$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 677.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 9c | 602.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 15c | 504.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 23c | 434.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…298bbacked Yes | 26c | 417.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 24c | 389$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 27c | 376.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked No | 76c | 191.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…fae2backed Yes | 35c | 181.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85e4…0e96backed Yes | 36c | 138.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 17c | 125.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 27c | 115.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…c69cbacked Yes | 17c | 101.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…09e7backed Yes | 17c | 101.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 97.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…1002backed Yes | 34c | 87.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 71c | 61.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 72c | 34.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sajith Premadasa win the Sri Lankan presidential election?this page
- Will Anura Dissanayake win the Sri Lankan presidential election?Yes won
- Will Ranil Wickremesinghe win the Sri Lankan presidential election?No won
- Will another candidate win the Sri Lankan presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.