Weather · resolved market
Will LA wildfires burn 40-50k acres by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c001e1bd128c714a2a9e33d25c9e68428c2e24db5dcf4c89582d61567927776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e6…3c04backed Yes | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…b528backed No | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked No | 2c | 2,999$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 74c | 538.98$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 32c | 331.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.68 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 66c | 199.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 153.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 43c | 147$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 80c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 108.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 68c | 106.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 19c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -6.5wins | -0.43per pick | 50cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 64c | 66.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 61.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…2e94backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce5…660ebacked Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…4edbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…bc0ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…2f7abacked Yes | 58c | 48.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…690ebacked Yes | 57c | 46.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…9d60backed Yes | 44c | 45.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…5609backed No | 71c | 45.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632a…746bbacked No | 45c | 43.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 58c | 33.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…9a52backed No | 46c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LA wildfires burn 40-50k acres by Sunday?this page
- Will LA wildfires burn 30-40k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 50-60k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 70-80k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 80k or more acres by Sunday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.