Weather · resolved market
Will LA wildfires burn 50-60k acres by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d78aaa7abc25c8863af1268cb1d6ac627a8bcb2554c8e48b5dabbcad439de1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,144$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 19c | 1,619$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 19c | 738.03$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 80c | 713.48$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 22c | 473$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 14c | 265$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 16c | 216$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 18c | 197$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…6311backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 119.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacd…cfb2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…bc0ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LA wildfires burn 50-60k acres by Sunday?this page
- Will LA wildfires burn 30-40k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 40-50k acres by Sunday?Yes won
- Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 70-80k acres by Sunday?No won
- Will LA wildfires burn 80k or more acres by Sunday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.