Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1db487b6c08f0caeecea63b7fed9f16063f5a6bc02ec85f9bc4a0c1e7fa3f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 1,653$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 26c | 1,184$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.93 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 51c | 1,110$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,002$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 9c | 937.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 79c | 895.84$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 758$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 28c | 698.7$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 21c | 663.57$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 20c | 655.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed Yes | 28c | 560$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 12c | 500.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 71c | 499.73$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…892ebacked Yes | 13c | 473.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 79c | 450.05$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 29c | 439.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 22c | 323.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 24c | 315$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 267.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed Yes | 22c | 249.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 29c | 191$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 64c | 143.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…46d9backed Yes | 22c | 136.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…5362backed Yes | 45c | 105.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 103.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 79c | 91.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 19c | 85.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 53c | 67.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed No | 71c | 63.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 49c | 55.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…f2acbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…34ccbacked Yes | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 78c | 38.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…68cdbacked Yes | 66c | 35.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…ee76backed Yes | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 20-27?this page
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 20-27?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.