Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab60609c5ca61f2ae92952cae318a72049d9d72bf790478038a0cb736541c2b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 70c | 1,577$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,011$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.86 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 27c | 646.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 47c | 644.1$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.59 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 67c | 636.85$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 552.15$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb670…fbd7backed No | 63c | 375.96$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 366.28$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 33c | 355$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 38c | 336.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 28c | 251.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed Yes | 33c | 202.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 69c | 199.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…a889backed Yes | 40c | 191.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 33c | 174.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…5362backed Yes | 23c | 162.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 27c | 156.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…a2f3backed Yes | 39c | 155.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 36c | 150.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 20c | 137.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 28c | 137$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…38cebacked Yes | 38c | 107.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…6dd1backed Yes | 35c | 104.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…02ccbacked Yes | 33c | 98.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebc…8b41backed Yes | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 30c | 81.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 16c | 79.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…383abacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 34c | 62.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…e478backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…ee76backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 38c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…68cdbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…34ccbacked Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…1096backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…178abacked Yes | 38c | 37.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 68c | 33.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 32c | 32.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737a…2bbcbacked Yes | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…a8c3backed Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…0f93backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e7…c339backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 20-27?this page
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 20-27?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.