Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f219ec343c0d499a3191dfb3e1f4632dc15b2c0c416f4927e6e6ebae97f77ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 33c | 4,133$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.04 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 53c | 1,339$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,236$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 55c | 1,070$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.44 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 999.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 12c | 942.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 17c | 928.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 716.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 40c | 624$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.64 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…7c48backed Yes | 45c | 624$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 12c | 577$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 68c | 547$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.57 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 14c | 528.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 6c | 488.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes | 10c | 452$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 6c | 357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 36c | 335$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed Yes | 21c | 317$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 16c | 280$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 17c | 250.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 62c | 246.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 28c | 211$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 24c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…d600backed No | 73c | 155$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 11c | 130.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 18c | 103.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 27c | 43.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…1096backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…8e63backed Yes | 51c | 39.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 20-27?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 20-27?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 20-27?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.