Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen 1 time by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacaaeeb268b3599201ea580f4a70ff26c02edd204aba1bd09ff9edebaab13915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 3,360$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 9c | 2,650$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,521$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.97 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,949$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…ff2dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,701$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 6c | 1,509$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 1,336$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.1 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 4c | 1,226$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 903.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 50c | 867.72$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 67c | 811.99$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 799.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 10c | 759.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 64c | 700.45$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.45 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 61c | 656.8$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 30c | 536.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 2c | 529.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 53c | 492.35$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 32c | 441.66$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed Yes | 9c | 431$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…3b2fbacked Yes | 6c | 415.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 61c | 409.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 14c | 356.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…7dd5backed Yes | 3c | 346.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 311.1$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 304.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 66c | 287$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 42c | 260$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 39c | 256.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 256.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.78 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 248.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cf…02b9backed Yes | 45c | 245.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 39c | 230$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 36c | 221.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 217.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 204$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…43eabacked Yes | 10c | 200.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…f62bbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 10c | 177.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…df7fbacked Yes | 16c | 149.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 8c | 148$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…03ebbacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 103.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 54c | 93.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 65c | 67.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 29c | 57.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked No | 77c | 49.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 45c | 47.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 55c | 40.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes | 53c | 33.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed Yes | 35c | 28.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…1d03backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen 1 time by September 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.