Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6274ab86ee2ac445bb0b3411ef7f583736e44bf9d3a067b3d448ba99271e1ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 19c | 8,392$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 16c | 2,995$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.74 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 24c | 2,507$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.32 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 11c | 2,457$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.83 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 26c | 2,356$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.67 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 1,810$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.46 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,784$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,594$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 8c | 1,448$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 74c | 1,407$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.11 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 7c | 1,230$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 18c | 1,129$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.17 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 9c | 895.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 28c | 658.93$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked Yes | 8c | 655.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 22c | 537.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 9c | 536.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 528.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…bb12backed Yes | 12c | 515.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 19c | 498.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 8c | 495.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…cba8backed Yes | 21c | 469.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 463.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 26c | 442.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 16c | 428.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 9c | 400.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…3616backed Yes | 12c | 364.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 14c | 350.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 342.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed Yes | 12c | 322.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…4a1ebacked Yes | 13c | 321.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 10c | 320.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 4c | 293.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 29c | 280.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 18c | 276.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 249.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 25c | 217.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…3b2fbacked Yes | 18c | 167.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e6…94eebacked Yes | 17c | 163.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 146.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 27c | 145.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…42eabacked Yes | 21c | 109.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 11c | 105.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 72c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…1e3dbacked Yes | 22c | 91.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 17c | 90.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 18c | 70.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c74ebacked Yes | 21c | 63.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…a74fbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 25c | 56.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 30c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 1 time by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.