Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4115a1f18b26b6f0870edcf430a7d4bad6b507bf63d945b9d647a541d86b7547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 12c | 7,199$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.99 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 54c | 4,482$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.79 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 12c | 3,774$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 3,034$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.16 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 77c | 2,891$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.76 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 22c | 2,544$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.51 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 76c | 2,063$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.78 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 31c | 1,899$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 1,453$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.71 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 77c | 1,425$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.52 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 17c | 1,410$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.16 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 1,162$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.68 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 63c | 788.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…17b1backed No | 35c | 711.11$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 35c | 706.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 64c | 693.23$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.56 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 32c | 630.64$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.85 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…17d2backed No | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 76c | 592.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…ccc5backed No | 16c | 550$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 536.95$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…bb12backed No | 50c | 529.13$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 11c | 500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 50c | 488.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed No | 11c | 479.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 28c | 457$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 40c | 445.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed No | 16c | 424.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…ff2dbacked No | 36c | 414.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…dc3ebacked No | 3c | 413.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 411.44$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.61 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…d046backed No | 22c | 388.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 380.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 73c | 370.77$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 6c | 363.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…859ebacked No | 30c | 337.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 21c | 324$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 15c | 315.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed No | 5c | 313.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 76c | 267.68$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…f62bbacked Yes | 69c | 256.61$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 244.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 32c | 243.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 66c | 240$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 28c | 238.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 73c | 233.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 27c | 208.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 68c | 202.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 13c | 198.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 52c | 190.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 73c | 180.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…4ee8backed No | 37c | 177.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…30c7backed Yes | 61c | 163.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 57c | 162$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…8917backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 57c | 148.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 57c | 139.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 32c | 138.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 71c | 131.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1d…52f1backed No | 31c | 127.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 47c | 127.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…1c34backed No | 29c | 103$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed Yes | 73c | 100.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7173backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…8a99backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 34c | 98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…ca3fbacked No | 22c | 96.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 27c | 91.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 55c | 86.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 61c | 86.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked Yes | 69c | 83.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 55c | 78.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed No | 29c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…1bebbacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…bdafbacked No | 29c | 68.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…ee29backed No | 29c | 67.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed No | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…4b3cbacked Yes | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 74c | 61.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x61e6…94eebacked Yes | 54c | 56.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 20c | 55.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…3d8dbacked No | 22c | 50.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…8396backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 1 time by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.