Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84de9a3d170e7bab6c01854a5d49dba029a9b6ab092fe637fbc0c9aa6ab2cb39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 3c | 9,880$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 4c | 6,529$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 1c | 6,086$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,570$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,113$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.46 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,612$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 2,029$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,816$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed Yes | 2c | 1,535$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,364$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,297$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,209$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 2c | 795$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…42eabacked Yes | 2c | 755.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 3c | 676.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 4c | 646.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 3c | 627.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 2c | 604$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 587.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 4c | 536.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 4c | 384.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 4c | 352.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…55a9backed Yes | 6c | 306.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 8c | 185.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 9c | 172.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 1 time by September 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.