Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x961d448a21edd45bbdf850af2c661b946c162e658e05223cf17f00f272fa1968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ca1…6e18backed Yes | 19c | 10,730$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 80c | 7,679$6,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.42 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,174$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 79c | 4,082$3,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.09 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 10c | 3,780$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.24 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 8c | 3,472$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 3c | 3,390$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 41c | 3,074$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 3,014$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 21c | 2,776$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.69 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 15c | 2,714$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…99a4backed Yes | 71c | 2,075$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked No | 80c | 1,837$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.62 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 7c | 1,707$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 15c | 1,594$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 20c | 1,383$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…65fabacked Yes | 11c | 1,133$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 20c | 1,111$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 64c | 1,022$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 686.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 79c | 530$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…46ffbacked Yes | 40c | 507$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 35c | 504.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…32a6backed Yes | 19c | 415.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 17c | 350.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 19c | 339.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 8c | 328.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 15c | 325.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Yes | 20c | 316.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 33c | 303.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…cb73backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…99a4backed Yes | 20c | 290.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 37c | 276.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…b676backed Yes | 23c | 271.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 19c | 256.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 13c | 250.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 9c | 245$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 19c | 243.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 12c | 242.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…81fbbacked Yes | 14c | 231.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 27c | 225.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 62c | 217.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 35c | 200.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739e…00fcbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 22c | 178.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 54c | 176.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c991backed Yes | 23c | 172.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 19c | 161.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…3ce8backed Yes | 35c | 155.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 18c | 153.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…5beebacked Yes | 19c | 150.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ab…9500backed Yes | 15c | 149.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e67…d472backed Yes | 18c | 141.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +387.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 74c | 135.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked Yes | 18c | 121.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 20c | 115.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 20c | 115.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 20c | 109.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…7dc6backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7626…d258backed Yes | 20c | 101.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…e6c1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a64…0144backed Yes | 41c | 98.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed No | 45c | 95.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…0fcabacked Yes | 18c | 86.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…f983backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked No | 76c | 58.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…b473backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde59…b425backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d96…17c3backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…e83ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Yes | 56c | 30.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Game 8 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.