Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9f30e67c819dbab586c2534986eceb2af392573f72e17cc010f080e7d450a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 17c | 8,080$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.96 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 7c | 5,449$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.72 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 6c | 4,616$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.18 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 4,358$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 12c | 2,998$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…39abbacked Yes | 23c | 2,546$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 5c | 2,467$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 2,297$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,293$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 65c | 1,866$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed Yes | 15c | 1,845$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 1,781$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 5c | 1,450$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,181$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 11c | 1,085$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 1,077$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 50c | 1,001$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 8c | 850.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 11c | 743.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked Yes | 12c | 622.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 71c | 561.84$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed Yes | 17c | 531.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Yes | 15c | 453.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 43c | 404.21$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 39c | 401.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 25c | 372.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…ebc7backed Yes | 10c | 372.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 45c | 352.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 30c | 338.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 25c | 330.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…b676backed Yes | 10c | 300.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 13c | 299.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 10c | 272.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…001abacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 13c | 249.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…e932backed Yes | 13c | 202.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…692abacked Yes | 28c | 173.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked No | 79c | 172$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 38c | 151.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…d421backed Yes | 14c | 145.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…0e4bbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 60c | 113.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…0fcabacked Yes | 20c | 108.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…99a4backed Yes | 33c | 106.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…eb28backed Yes | 76c | 102.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 69c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…6f43backed Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 70c | 76.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…3ce8backed No | 70c | 69.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c991backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 62c | 62.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 43c | 52.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…7dc6backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d86…13babacked Yes | 31c | 36.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…4198backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Game 8 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.