Chess · resolved market
Will Game 8 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6081a60cf6ff01a6f341b5b2049c7f8d5d9d10b7ac9304631df743ff3241de72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6ea…97f1backed No | 5c | 4,187$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 57c | 3,541$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 66c | 3,236$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.21 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 39c | 2,692$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.44 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 61c | 2,443$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 24c | 2,319$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 58c | 1,840$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 35c | 1,600$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 15c | 1,580$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 69c | 1,563$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 42c | 1,182$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.88 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed No | 3c | 1,080$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked No | 60c | 1,038$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…d1b2backed No | 40c | 941.89$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 69c | 911.6$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed No | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 40c | 763.94$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.47 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 10c | 761.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…53b3backed Yes | 39c | 673.56$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…9a20backed Yes | 66c | 636.93$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed Yes | 77c | 592$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5,506%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 553.23$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 64c | 552.78$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…46ffbacked Yes | 59c | 550$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 63c | 472.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.75 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 53c | 444.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes | 68c | 429.63$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 56c | 416.59$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed No | 36c | 397.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…b55dbacked Yes | 47c | 375.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +132%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked No | 32c | 373.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 64c | 358.5$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 45c | 325.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6310backed Yes | 61c | 262.65$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 65c | 258$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…4198backed No | 11c | 251.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 61c | 247.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 70c | 228.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f397backed No | 31c | 217.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed No | 32c | 212.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 210.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 17c | 200.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed Yes | 62c | 178.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 58c | 173.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 60c | 166.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…c2c0backed Yes | 62c | 154.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…55a0backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 34c | 130.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…3199backed Yes | 55c | 117.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 62c | 102.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 38c | 102.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc725…34e7backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…5ceebacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6af4backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…f8c4backed Yes | 64c | 95.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 62c | 80.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 60c | 74.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 70c | 71.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed No | 22c | 64.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…d55bbacked No | 36c | 59.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 43c | 57.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 66c | 56.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ab…9500backed No | 40c | 52.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked Yes | 40c | 44.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…38a7backed No | 42c | 39.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…3ce8backed Yes | 62c | 38.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed No | 38c | 38.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f4…3f2fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…b473backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…0e4bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…13a9backed No | 36c | 28.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e67…d472backed Yes | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +387.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ab…4cb2backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Yes | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 49c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 61c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…1a4ebacked Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Game 8 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.