Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13e09b4c7edb4e87f337849ba46e1daccdab2ea491681ec61886263f446647c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 1c | 5,003$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…79d3backed Yes | 6c | 3,237$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 6c | 3,081$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.01 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 3c | 2,838$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 2,773$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.61 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 19c | 2,376$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,212$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed Yes | 14c | 2,013$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 1c | 1,926$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 12c | 1,498$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.79 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…e977backed Yes | 6c | 1,181$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +949.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 14c | 1,047$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,022$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 2c | 868.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 14c | 828$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 742.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 2c | 670$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 12c | 608.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 5c | 583.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 8c | 577.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 3c | 571.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 11c | 491.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c159backed Yes | 4c | 464.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 7c | 419.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…7bc3backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 4c | 395$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…f487backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff0…f9e0backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 6c | 312.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed Yes | 5c | 304$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…eacfbacked Yes | 14c | 288.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 14c | 276$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…43c2backed Yes | 12c | 248.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…4507backed Yes | 20c | 248.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…23a5backed Yes | 10c | 244.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…0fcabacked Yes | 7c | 222.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ceb…0c87backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 12c | 160.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…eb25backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…bf46backed Yes | 12c | 140.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dac…ff25backed Yes | 13c | 139.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 13c | 114.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…5bbcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…de9ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427b…eb4bbacked Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 13c | 82.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…c9bebacked Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.