Us Politics · resolved market
Judge issues restraining order to block Trump's funding freeze by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c952e487a157e60adc0ec12729ed105f0110d81418023a9f227391534401d30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 73c | 535.51$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 25c | 440.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 72c | 340.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 67c | 268$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…917ebacked No | 48c | 216.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 27c | 210.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked No | 29c | 209.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 28c | 199$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 170$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 70c | 159$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…28f0backed No | 25c | 122$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked No | 10c | 121.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 29c | 113.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…6768backed No | 29c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 69c | 100.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 26c | 80.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…72afbacked No | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 72c | 74.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…87bfbacked No | 27c | 56.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked Yes | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 75c | 41.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…6f25backed Yes | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 73c | 34.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 75c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…60cdbacked Yes | 75c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…6c8ebacked Yes | 73c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…322ebacked Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…8f85backed Yes | 77c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.