World Politics · resolved market
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae5147c0d9705a5f4c0d664c5edd8d4eb8b94eaeb9a29b583875a1a33c48ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 5c | 7,473$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 11c | 5,669$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 9cpaid | +1,012.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 44c | 3,069$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.1 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 15c | 1,998$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 67c | 1,685$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.92 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 14c | 1,598$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 79c | 1,591$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 40c | 1,558$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.3 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 58c | 1,543$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,422$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.56 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,231$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.9 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 18c | 1,172$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked No | 40c | 1,136$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 72c | 1,128$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.78 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…d76dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,127$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…8b6fbacked No | 57c | 950.87$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 64c | 782.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…c282backed No | 32c | 780.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…f32fbacked No | 65c | 769.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 21c | 764$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 60c | 749.62$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 60c | 746.22$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.62 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 74c | 661.32$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.39 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 58c | 626.49$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.92 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…aff4backed Yes | 16c | 610.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked No | 46c | 604.44$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 37c | 603$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.94 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…46a2backed No | 41c | 600$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked No | 62c | 598.59$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4fc9backed No | 51c | 596.59$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 44c | 566$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 524.92$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed No | 16c | 523.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes | 52c | 484.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed No | 21c | 470.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…b906backed No | 30c | 464.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14c…e5ebbacked No | 24c | 405.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd53…87c0backed Yes | 68c | 384.19$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…37a6backed Yes | 13c | 374.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 11c | 372.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 22c | 370.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.04 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…5d12backed No | 55c | 342.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…7877backed No | 38c | 339.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 50c | 339.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…c2dbbacked No | 40c | 335.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 65c | 309.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c10…0b65backed Yes | 46c | 303.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 47c | 290.31$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…28a7backed No | 34c | 290.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 264.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.15 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…f86dbacked Yes | 45c | 262.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 45c | 253.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 68c | 252.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked No | 39c | 251.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 44c | 226.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…25cbbacked Yes | 74c | 207.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 36c | 196.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 27c | 194.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 184.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…dcd9backed No | 52c | 181.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…0e74backed Yes | 54c | 179.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 52c | 173.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22fd…c184backed No | 61c | 163.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…d811backed No | 47c | 157.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…32c2backed Yes | 29c | 151.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…d927backed Yes | 69c | 140.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…c0edbacked Yes | 72c | 139.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 16c | 139.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 49c | 136.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 38c | 131.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…0b1bbacked Yes | 24c | 126.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +108%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…5e13backed No | 41c | 124.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…ffbcbacked Yes | 33c | 122.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 46c | 115.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…ff5fbacked Yes | 53c | 112.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…5edebacked Yes | 48c | 104.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…0e8bbacked No | 58c | 103.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 102.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…dd1abacked No | 51c | 100.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…562dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…35f9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…d8c2backed No | 54c | 97.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…fdaebacked Yes | 39c | 89.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 34c | 88.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 43c | 88.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 59c | 87.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 61c | 82.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…63aabacked Yes | 76c | 81.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…9c66backed No | 64c | 77.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…1d67backed Yes | 53c | 75.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4f…eb08backed No | 47c | 75.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 33c | 74.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…d705backed Yes | 49c | 68.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…27c7backed No | 37c | 61.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?this page
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Bruno Retailleau be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Catherine Vautrin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will David Lisnard be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Baroin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Jean-Yves Le Drian be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Lucie Castets be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Michel Barnier be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Roland Lescure be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Xavier Bertrand be the next French Prime Minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.