World Politics · resolved market
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da6e06fe8fee323bfc576278f8b8b2e58a7a25e3a50a0c0d1a32a19205d31be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 66c | 688.42$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4fc9backed Yes | 11c | 627.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 16c | 576.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…6242backed Yes | 13c | 541.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 70c | 528.81$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes | 15c | 512.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 15c | 501.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 20c | 448.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 370.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 19c | 361.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 16c | 325.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 16c | 309.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 287.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 276.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 6c | 271.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 14c | 220.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c10…0b65backed Yes | 62c | 205.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…c282backed Yes | 62c | 203.88$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes | 25c | 198.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 72c | 194.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…3318backed Yes | 14c | 180.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 36c | 179.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 12c | 176.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa73…2e0bbacked Yes | 59c | 169.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked Yes | 21c | 141.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Yes | 12c | 136.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…7877backed Yes | 12c | 125.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 121.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 15c | 98.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…52f5backed No | 77c | 98.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…bb7ebacked Yes | 24c | 95.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…3b2bbacked Yes | 65c | 78.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0001…d1ebbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…f86dbacked Yes | 65c | 51.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fa…7175backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157b…87dcbacked Yes | 69c | 48.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…90d2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked No | 79c | 38.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -65%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…0e8bbacked Yes | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…d927backed Yes | 66c | 23.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…f82abacked No | 72c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister?this page
- Will Bruno Retailleau be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Catherine Vautrin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will David Lisnard be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Baroin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?Yes won
- Will Jean-Yves Le Drian be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Lucie Castets be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Michel Barnier be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Roland Lescure be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Xavier Bertrand be the next French Prime Minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.