World Politics · resolved market
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next French Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa13fefcff4b47c3bb5aa5d614e56ba9fb0cc3bc4fcc2cf7fc06c2ef3d811dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,627$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 1,549$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.67 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 17c | 582.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 12c | 540$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 449.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 14c | 416.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 75c | 341.35$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 13c | 340$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…6242backed Yes | 16c | 306.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 17c | 292.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes | 10c | 291.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 12c | 252.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 217.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 183.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 23c | 160.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 11c | 159.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 6c | 158.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 70c | 143.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 9c | 141.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 140.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…f86dbacked Yes | 47c | 137.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…b906backed Yes | 15c | 135.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…32c2backed Yes | 40c | 119.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…1d72backed Yes | 14c | 118.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…32a6backed Yes | 20c | 116.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 32c | 111.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa7…5821backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 50c | 100.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Yes | 25c | 74.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 27c | 74.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa332…19a8backed Yes | 21c | 70.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…35f9backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 56.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fa…7175backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c10…0b65backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +283.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…94d5backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 31c | 41.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 26c | 39.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…fdaebacked Yes | 43c | 34.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 74c | 30.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 78c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next French Prime Minister?this page
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Bruno Retailleau be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Catherine Vautrin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will David Lisnard be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Baroin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?Yes won
- Will Jean-Yves Le Drian be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Lucie Castets be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Michel Barnier be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Roland Lescure be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Xavier Bertrand be the next French Prime Minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.