World Politics · resolved market
Will Roland Lescure be the next French Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacbb57dc8c11b6527fc5fc04f68fb09ce56fe3ab8113c2d38f3850b82f8dac26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 4c | 984.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…6242backed Yes | 5c | 797.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 8c | 535.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 42c | 487.87$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 25c | 477.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 16c | 469.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 13c | 377$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 305.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…7877backed Yes | 13c | 237.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 65c | 230.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…fdd7backed Yes | 26c | 221.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 17c | 174.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 27c | 136.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…c2dbbacked Yes | 18c | 111.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…46a2backed Yes | 20c | 96.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…d811backed Yes | 32c | 76.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 78c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roland Lescure be the next French Prime Minister?this page
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Bruno Retailleau be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Catherine Vautrin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will David Lisnard be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Baroin be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?Yes won
- Will Jean-Yves Le Drian be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Lucie Castets be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Michel Barnier be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next French Prime Minister?No won
- Will Xavier Bertrand be the next French Prime Minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.