TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes5c21,428$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff8…e681backed Yes5c19,226$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes6c4,900$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.9470%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes11c4,780$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes7c4,533$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.287525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes10c3,607$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes15c3,109$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes6c2,856$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes10c2,600$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2684425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes14c2,545$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.38837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes15c2,459$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…ac66backed Yes21c2,442$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes12c2,306$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes14c2,196$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6255…a005backed Yes9c2,193$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes7c2,075$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes9c1,973$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.111338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes14c1,766$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.24933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes4c1,742$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.525541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0121…6808backed Yes9c1,718$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes8c1,700$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c1,499$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes19c1,183$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.671020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5468…d86ebacked Yes19c1,175$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.891421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes16c981.08$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.912615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed Yes21c933.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes11c879.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes14c855.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.83164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes15c822.5$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.121136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Yes13c805.73$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc0…0ca9backed Yes11c750.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes10c727.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5910137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c724.45$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c701$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.28110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes20c656.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes10c615.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…37d2backed Yes9c577.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda00…64e3backed Yes18c528.95$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.812352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd4b…75eabacked No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1253619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d12…007fbacked Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes13c380.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes12c374.72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.663119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e4…c8abbacked Yes16c364.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc085…82fabacked Yes9c337.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa689…4cf5backed Yes8c333.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes22c327.65$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.551723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes8c326.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bab…39babacked Yes17c319.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes9c311.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.082817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…ac3abacked Yes21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698a…971cbacked Yes9c291.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x856e…8fc7backed Yes4c288.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes7c263.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4320026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bf2…d992backed No78c261.55$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes12c250.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.041533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes11c239.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe0…b82cbacked Yes14c225$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e09…fc91backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe378…4cecbacked Yes18c216.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.05560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes12c216.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66b…0e7cbacked Yes13c216.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd530…725cbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ed…608abacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No80c200$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x184d…0a71backed Yes22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea08…2c2dbacked Yes12c185.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf571…80fabacked No80c174.07$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43a2…b456backed Yes15c172.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes13c158.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf7…7f88backed No80c156.24$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9f…82abbacked Yes14c155$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick27cpaid+48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes7c147.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes17c136.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1717122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed No77c133$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb990…c2e6backed Yes20c126.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes21c125.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.951442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5462…9c89backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56a…c501backed Yes14c125$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f0…ebc7backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa437…3422backed Yes12c121.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x108f…9da6backed Yes18c112.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes28c111.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cb…b053backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes19c99.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…a190backed Yes21c97.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.15550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56665.2%43 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6417…d43ebacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe01…ec8bbacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.