Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabba19c1fcabe5c27c3384c0705fed46b5c7c90b5d74184b7020a4eda454a798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 21,428$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…e681backed Yes | 5c | 19,226$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes | 6c | 4,900$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes | 11c | 4,780$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 7c | 4,533$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.28 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 10c | 3,607$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 15c | 3,109$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 6c | 2,856$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,600$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,545$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,459$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…ac66backed Yes | 21c | 2,442$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 12c | 2,306$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 14c | 2,196$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…a005backed Yes | 9c | 2,193$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,075$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,973$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 14c | 1,766$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 4c | 1,742$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…6808backed Yes | 9c | 1,718$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 8c | 1,700$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,499$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,183$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…d86ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,175$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 16c | 981.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.91 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 21c | 933.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 11c | 879.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 14c | 855.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 15c | 822.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…cde3backed Yes | 13c | 805.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…0ca9backed Yes | 11c | 750.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 727.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 724.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 701$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 20c | 656.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 10c | 615.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…37d2backed Yes | 9c | 577.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…64e3backed Yes | 18c | 528.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 13c | 380.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 374.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked Yes | 16c | 364.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 9c | 337.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…4cf5backed Yes | 8c | 333.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 22c | 327.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 8c | 326.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bab…39babacked Yes | 17c | 319.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 311.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…ac3abacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…971cbacked Yes | 9c | 291.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…8fc7backed Yes | 4c | 288.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 263.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…d992backed No | 78c | 261.55$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 12c | 250.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 11c | 239.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…b82cbacked Yes | 14c | 225$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e09…fc91backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…4cecbacked Yes | 18c | 216.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 12c | 216.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0e7cbacked Yes | 13c | 216.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd530…725cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…608abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…0a71backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…2c2dbacked Yes | 12c | 185.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…80fabacked No | 80c | 174.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…b456backed Yes | 15c | 172.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 13c | 158.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed No | 80c | 156.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…82abbacked Yes | 14c | 155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes | 7c | 147.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 136.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed No | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 20c | 126.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 21c | 125.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…9c89backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…c501backed Yes | 14c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…ebc7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…3422backed Yes | 12c | 121.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…9da6backed Yes | 18c | 112.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 28c | 111.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…a190backed Yes | 21c | 97.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…d43ebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…ec8bbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.