Music · resolved market
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448984c13f9e33e7ab060583208d45f9df31e8a9688de49c84b0c473a18d443e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 70c | 5,164$3,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.39 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…aa37backed No | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 14c | 1,044$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 7c | 703.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 674.76$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.01 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 4c | 497.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +420.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 13c | 456.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 67c | 416.19$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 31c | 393$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 17c | 371.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 66c | 359.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 334.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 274.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 214.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 42c | 212.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 210$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 51c | 201$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…3365backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 30c | 190$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…4e3bbacked No | 37c | 167.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 10c | 156.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 35c | 150.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…003ebacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 34c | 132$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 129.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 32c | 101.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…c1e3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…902ebacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 46c | 87.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 83.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 59c | 82.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…5009backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 18c | 77.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 73c | 75.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 62c | 65.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…ae85backed Yes | 57c | 56.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 37c | 55.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…4f2cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…f209backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 29c | 48.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 33c | 41.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Yes | 33c | 36.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 40c | 32.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed Yes | 69c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 75c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…59d3backed Yes | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…d6fbbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 62c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…9066backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?this page
- Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?No won
- Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 140k and 160k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.