TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes31c3,026$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.38850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes16c1,858$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.836943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No65c1,236$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.8314661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c1,208$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.0712234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes31c1,178$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.045054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes11c1,164$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No66c830$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.372161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked Yes46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No72c487.66$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.923754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c437.14$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.93447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed No79c435.64$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No69c429.99$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.722166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+128.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes11c428.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes17c415.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes18c352.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.632433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes34c318$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.382951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c317.31$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.316334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c294$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.922640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes24c276$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.172638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes10c265$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes7c262.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed Yes43c256.31$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes37c249.45$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.391844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa76b…8a50backed Yes30c225.42$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.461747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes37c202.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753627.8%10 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-48.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed No71c201$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes47c200$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67a4…2da1backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+186.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d0…003ebacked Yes16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes47c172$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.841442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes35c154.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542524%6 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes35c143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c132$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.913961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb81…c627backed Yes16c130.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20f…ab16backed Yes47c128.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3609…4e3bbacked Yes31c127.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0d…835bbacked No78c125$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e90…1c09backed Yes38c121.05$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c120$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.14161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No67c120$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.351384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+112.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No65c119.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.641844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No78c105.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.972259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked No77c104.51$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80de…2e87backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x758a…f23cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a08…1a00backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes11c93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…0f06backed Yes18c82.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5335backed Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes23c78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes36c75.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes16c74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No58c71.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.177100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes47c68.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No77c64.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes42c57.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bb…268bbacked Yes44c56.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes36c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No72c53.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes32c51.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe679…871fbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304c…b1cabacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a56…563cbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc4…314cbacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3406…6ce0backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.963759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes31c46.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.455759.6%34 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes46c43.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc677…677abacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes40c39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ec8…65e3backed Yes50c38.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No62c35.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No60c32.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.111442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked No55c30.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.93560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+252%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb682…7db4backed No70c21.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No71c15.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.