Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebc73f34cfd4f159c1da12f7ba118d799b98c2d39d84cbfd6aea919c1c992db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed Yes | 76c | 9,920$7,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 9c | 5,686$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 2c | 5,490$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 17c | 4,410$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 54c | 4,395$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 33c | 4,000$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 75c | 3,504$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.29 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 71c | 3,119$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.24 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 3,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 8c | 2,538$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 2,259$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 6c | 2,070$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,043$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 8c | 2,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed No | 6c | 1,710$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 54c | 1,670$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 1,627$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 6c | 1,599$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 1c | 1,122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 1,114$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,027$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 922.88$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 878.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…d269backed No | 4c | 844.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 810.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef4…2631backed No | 76c | 797.01$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed Yes | 56c | 751.23$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…caabbacked No | 6c | 707.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 25c | 660$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 69c | 659.07$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.79 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 54c | 606.84$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 5c | 576.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 51c | 555$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 49c | 542.2$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked No | 4c | 486.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 36c | 474.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…8d02backed No | 5c | 465.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 37c | 450$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a6…554cbacked No | 14c | 438.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 407.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 4c | 368.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 367.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 32c | 351.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 343.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked No | 33c | 330.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 35c | 329.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 29c | 313.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 5c | 291.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 9c | 288.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62da…326dbacked No | 6c | 287.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…578abacked No | 22c | 262.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…46ebbacked No | 44c | 230.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 215.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f1…7511backed Yes | 53c | 188.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 26c | 188.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 172.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 166$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 61c | 164.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 31c | 162.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 10c | 149.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 144.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 69c | 127.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 58c | 105.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 101.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked No | 53c | 100.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 56c | 99.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 55c | 95.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed Yes | 58c | 85.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 55c | 78.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 74.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 74.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 80c | 69.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…fdbabacked No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 78c | 60.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…ad85backed Yes | 18c | 58.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +443.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…f3a4backed Yes | 59c | 54.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…9a4cbacked Yes | 73c | 53.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…43a7backed No | 66c | 48.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…5821backed No | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?this page
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.