Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x544d3ca7b961f58a2878915fa51f310e2bab7fe9a01fe7f10e364a49f2e99e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 1 wallet that holds a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 5c | 957.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?this page
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.