TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response before October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$467,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$455,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes21c77,663$16,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,349.062015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes9c32,242$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.479815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed No66c23,413$15,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,018.682755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No63c20,935$13,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,641.822941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes19c20,459$3,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes4c11,466$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.751136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid-17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes19c10,777$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.482927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes12c10,388$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.685143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes18c10,268$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes12c7,049$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.684429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes3c6,230$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.911735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes28c6,119$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.144030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes15c5,795$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.7926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff2…fc00backed Yes40c5,539$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5256…0494backed No69c5,517$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.941631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed Yes18c5,095$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.452821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a7…9de3backed Yes17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes4c4,963$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes21c4,910$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.662759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x19a5…84bcbacked Yes39c4,899$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes26c4,682$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.78220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes11c4,487$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.75749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe410…de46backed Yes29c4,400$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.222615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked No67c4,200$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes6c3,966$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.955315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes31c3,627$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.25121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…730bbacked No78c3,481$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No77c2,915$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.413243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No74c2,840$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.291643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc125…15fcbacked Yes9c2,638$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes41c2,450$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.995922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed No63c2,277$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.671442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes5c2,240$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes6c2,085$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.94425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6f…aa67backed Yes3c2,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes6c1,916$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.543633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No64c1,827$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes8c1,684$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes5c1,626$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.948037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No79c1,500$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.994641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked No62c1,474$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.661030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No68c1,397$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.682454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01f4…3356backed Yes1c1,281$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x271e…b6bbbacked Yes7c1,215$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3c…62ebbacked No69c1,148$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes24c1,100$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2687647.4%36 W · 40 L+10.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed Yes29c1,063$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.274050%20 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…f01fbacked Yes11c968.52$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes33c950$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes20c934.9$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d44…5b60backed Yes11c934.64$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes2c933.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.875747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c902.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes30c894.88$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.461250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e1…98fcbacked No79c889.8$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.83100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7a…7a7cbacked No80c873.84$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.771457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes7c861.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602520%5 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb999…8441backed Yes37c778$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.86911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-72.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb26…4e11backed No77c764.02$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No64c756.37$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.241952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes12c724.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes14c722$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.72740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No63c618.71$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b6…2dcebacked Yes25c608$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes35c592.17$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3414724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac9…d84ebacked Yes35c583.01$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f6…1fefbacked Yes35c575.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93aa…21f4backed Yes4c547.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes8c542.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fac…574ebacked Yes10c521.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes11c499.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c484.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No65c469.3$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.343729.7%11 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes10c466.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes22c461.11$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6120823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes10c451.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.25329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes10c440.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.127728.6%22 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes28c438.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.93435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No77c428.84$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.842564%16 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x383a…c380backed No70c426.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.23580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b58…c6a8backed Yes45c420$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked Yes33c419.83$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.731216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c8f…957ebacked Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d9…c24fbacked No66c396.43$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.852653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e9…ced2backed Yes35c383.17$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes4c379.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.684639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfac…a936backed Yes37c375.21$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes15c360$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54100%0 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes4c353.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144418.2%8 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb52…6a7cbacked No79c348.91$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0388…5c8ebacked Yes15c335.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No68c333$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5628427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed Yes10c333$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.31330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…711bbacked No75c331.37$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b8f…8341backed Yes22c300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+127.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b79…ac82backed No67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41d1…88ebbacked Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.