Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe0adf2be7656934df7af55ff03a50113ff0abe7d505f3ef465206d583df852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 76c | 6,405$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 33c | 5,572$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.96 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 17c | 5,302$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 59c | 3,671$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1,201.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 47c | 3,104$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…6854backed Yes | 36c | 1,333$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 67c | 1,277$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.48 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 63c | 1,250$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 40c | 1,035$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.24 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 1,019$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.8 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 15c | 932$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 15c | 932$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 52c | 905$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.33 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 43c | 828.95$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 45c | 624.64$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 55c | 624.22$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.69 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 49c | 600.19$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 64c | 504$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.17 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 37c | 482$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.78 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked No | 71c | 423.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 38c | 394.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1742…38e9backed No | 75c | 325$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 36c | 311.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 70c | 226.9$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 45c | 208.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 39c | 204.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 189.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…b8edbacked No | 55c | 180.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 180.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 62c | 172.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked No | 65c | 172$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 35c | 157.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 147$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…77b3backed No | 44c | 139.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 138.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 38c | 113$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 36c | 113$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 96.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 55c | 91.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 87.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…13b1backed No | 35c | 73.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…ce21backed Yes | 41c | 72.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 42c | 71.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…c6b0backed Yes | 28c | 70.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 35c | 63.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 55c | 61.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 62c | 57.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed Yes | 60c | 50.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 33c | 44.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…a106backed Yes | 31c | 42.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 62c | 40.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 45c | 34.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 75c | 28.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 66c | 24.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.