AI · resolved market
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9e2653307bc522616bc0679cac79195975382aa02ce1ff181afd517881a6def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 22c | 8,769$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 5,386$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 6c | 2,937$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 74c | 2,920$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.61 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 72c | 2,393$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.04 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes | 72c | 1,978$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 21c | 1,517$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…bc77backed Yes | 73c | 1,385$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 1,126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…19d1backed Yes | 80c | 1,006$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 9c | 1,003$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259a…991dbacked No | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 24c | 876.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 4c | 836$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 3c | 794.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 21c | 775.28$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.54 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…9c46backed Yes | 65c | 774.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 74c | 758.1$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…0e39backed Yes | 79c | 615.95$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 76c | 612.01$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 78c | 578.88$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 500.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 498.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked No | 5c | 480.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…c796backed No | 12c | 402.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 371.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…16f6backed Yes | 63c | 355.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 16c | 252.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 237.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…68acbacked Yes | 65c | 229.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 69c | 222$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed No | 36c | 205.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 32c | 195.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 75c | 172$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 171.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…39a0backed Yes | 74c | 168.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 16c | 141.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 66c | 138.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed No | 38c | 129.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 128.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 37c | 107.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 66c | 105.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 101.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…59f0backed No | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…1f59backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…9356backed No | 30c | 67.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 61c | 63.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f6…bde2backed Yes | 70c | 42.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…0caabacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 79c | 41.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes | 60c | 40.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…ce17backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…0fe2backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e7…5cc4backed Yes | 78c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 73c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3197…04f8backed Yes | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd0…0619backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…6c4fbacked Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.