Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f326550147381e1b178cf8b15739e386dfbf83a239529279d49e171e1144e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 14c | 10,267$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.49 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,016$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.2 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,516$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.75 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,145$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 9c | 3,961$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.14 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…c480backed Yes | 11c | 3,247$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 2,206$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.86 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 12c | 2,087$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,644$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,643$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,183$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,004$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 14c | 875$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9458…3555backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 9c | 721.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 6c | 700.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…e128backed Yes | 15c | 688.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 12c | 550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 9c | 526.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 13c | 522$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed Yes | 12c | 521.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 349.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 328.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 9c | 323.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 317.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 14c | 317.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 10c | 310.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…ed31backed Yes | 5c | 264.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 11c | 263.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 11c | 213$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 13c | 202.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 9c | 171.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…bed9backed Yes | 12c | 159.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 8c | 152.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…b3bbbacked Yes | 10c | 151.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…9de3backed Yes | 13c | 137.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 118.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…af3cbacked Yes | 13c | 117.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 12c | 116.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…5b22backed Yes | 11c | 109.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed Yes | 14c | 83.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…9ddabacked Yes | 14c | 76.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 14c | 76.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?this page
- Will Chellie Pingree be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Dan Kleban be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Jordan Wood be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Saundra Pelletier be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes won
- Will Valli Geiger be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.