TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe0db…f44ebacked No77c9,813$7,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.611855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes24c9,191$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.646035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes13c5,417$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.2124433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes31c5,377$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.296152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes4c3,650$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No78c2,555$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.098133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes9c2,417$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f0…c480backed Yes10c2,111$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes22c2,066$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.522630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes23c2,000$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.73243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes20c1,912$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.22227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes20c1,893$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.64242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No67c1,821$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.858042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9063…f42fbacked No65c1,596$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed No71c1,490$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.352245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes21c1,220$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.192128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes24c1,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes22c1,000$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes33c993.28$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.911747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…e4e0backed No78c970.82$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes11c940.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.43026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes26c804.67$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.196826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes11c800$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes9c788.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.854953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes2c749.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes5c703.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.482536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes27c677.38$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2733421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc011…3b70backed No69c676$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes21c651.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.722833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No79c645$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.456750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa927…4847backed Yes33c608.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No74c608$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.888234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…e45abacked Yes23c601.08$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No78c600$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7789…ac9bbacked Yes33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes31c582.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.654744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c545$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9949411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes9c500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7224831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked No68c499.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.992263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Yes11c463.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5160%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes9c449.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.492231.8%7 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick14cpaid+183.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfad0…3a91backed Yes21c446$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…a1d3backed Yes25c428.32$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed No61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No73c380$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.69326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes25c376.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc205…eec2backed No71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.51060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes21c350$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No71c331.36$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.29819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb3c8…2e5abacked Yes29c318.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No70c268$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.48541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No72c255$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…9a00backed Yes40c248.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No70c247.53$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick41cpaid+47.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No71c226.06$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.516020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes31c221.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.822630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes11c218.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes34c217.65$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd423…99e9backed No69c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e50…b28abacked Yes36c210.6$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes9c201.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.141823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x840e…b9edbacked Yes23c201.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x172d…36cabacked No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34db…2e01backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7514…5dd2backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742425%6 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-87.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6464…99adbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578e…c940backed No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa66c…8460backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd6…86f1backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f61…0deabacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e7…8c77backed Yes22c194.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…6569backed No79c163.37$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes13c163.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54537.8%17 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bfd…fb46backed Yes26c137.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c137.06$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.687451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd6…10d4backed No78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No78c123.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1613546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4c…d6a2backed Yes22c123.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c119.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4344935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes33c109.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.042552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…ed31backed Yes11c105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.631747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+168.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ba…5b5ebacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes15c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No70c96.43$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.933773%27 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed Yes19c87.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7e…106bbacked Yes35c84.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No71c84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.363855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No68c75.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.182157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+86.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.