Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bf6e03e622182ad9445f74c3a4e3be92343a9d4481c7bb8f61ac9edf3221934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 2c | 3,133$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…3525backed Yes | 3c | 2,978$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 7c | 1,894$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 3c | 1,302$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 3c | 941.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 607.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?this page
- Will Chellie Pingree be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Dan Kleban be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Jordan Wood be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Saundra Pelletier be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
- Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes won
- Will Valli Geiger be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.