Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4805f2bc9668e4d114f9e5c121f69804cfab1dba1222607995a88cbf7d5343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 12c | 2,286$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Down | 48c | 782.9$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 32c | 600$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0a…43bcbacked Down | 4c | 553.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 3c | 549.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 8c | 321$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Down | 5c | 293.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b94…23eabacked Up | 67c | 230.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 51c | 211.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Down | 49c | 203.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Down | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Down | 39c | 198.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Up | 67c | 175.81$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…cd68backed Down | 32c | 155.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 68c | 107.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x185a…3137backed Down | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Down | 26c | 94.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Up | 65c | 60.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Up | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Down | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Down | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Up | 50c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.