TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa98…90bbbacked Up46c12,137$5,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,601.287847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba1…b0b6backed Up31c5,753$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,952.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Up27c5,162$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.267244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Up66c4,606$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5875149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up16c4,323$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,624.951241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ba…f948backed Up42c3,700$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd83c…34f6backed Up18c3,686$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.892250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down2c3,459$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Down62c3,416$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.0529264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed Down78c3,234$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.936761.2%41 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9301…3b67backed Down74c2,680$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Up49c2,617$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.8293840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa179…9629backed Up12c1,500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+91.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Down66c1,431$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.17960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Up8c1,291$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.3319923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc786…f62ebacked Up17c1,237$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.821435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Down78c1,208$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.53757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Up30c1,168$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked Up37c1,140$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.112245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Up28c1,125$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.984254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Down54c1,119$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60430738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Up2c1,089$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.292924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+145.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf77…202bbacked Up3c1,030$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+1,626.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Down77c1,001$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.011546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6db…f4adbacked Up33c997.8$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Up12c991.25$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c3…b734backed Up43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed76…8520backed Up46c800$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up48c781.53$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.162441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed Down54c760$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056b…5a03backed Up15c756$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+124.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Up17c752.4$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6254520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Up6c701.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66112011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Down74c699.98$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.782552%13 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10da…81c4backed Down13c697.58$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…2a8abacked Up20c554.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+181%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Up26c532.36$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+88.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Down78c500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3907526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…9c2dbacked Down26c500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.25977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…b236backed Up3c500$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.412445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+118.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Up4c474.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.783815.8%6 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Up40c469.82$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.73641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a79…7f2fbacked Down36c451.86$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Up3c439.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.4915446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed Down76c419.11$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7915056%84 W · 66 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+40.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up28c417.87$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.547234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Up38c410$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.254339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Up5c367.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.66166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Down62c332.09$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4615020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a9…2ab0backed Down55c321.76$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.762445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08bf…df57backed Up49c306.42$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.381855.6%10 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick72cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Up43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c00…34c8backed Down54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a02…ddaabacked Down40c298.59$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Down72c276.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4528…24dcbacked Down60c275.39$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.841675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Up33c263.74$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.31,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Up5c230$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.31936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+75.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Down72c210$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.32825%7 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb8d1…40c3backed Down69c204.92$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.571747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Up46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1086256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Up9c200$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.386529.2%19 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Up43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1146937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+289%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed Up42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Down55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11025661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Down59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe549…7d86backed Down53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17815221.7%33 W · 119 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab63…8f4bbacked Down53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb135…f5b9backed Down53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c09…3f91backed Down53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Down71c187.38$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0430443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cea…ffd2backed Down58c172.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010667.9%72 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd71c…20b3backed Up27c154.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.673545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6e…c21abacked Up32c153$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+213.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked Up36c152.63$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+114.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9e1…0458backed Up29c150.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.141520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…7770backed Up31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51da…d7b9backed Down17c146$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5606…9bd7backed Up42c138$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e33…2313backed Up18c130$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Up42c125$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.443265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x09fd…b61ebacked Up36c124.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.873016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-49.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Down53c117.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.943056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabcf…17b7backed Up16c111.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.153046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x254a…bc44backed Up26c111.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+283.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Down53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536129.5%18 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9097…fa4abacked Up47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a3…c6e8backed Up47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x358f…6602backed Up12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+382.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e70…fa4dbacked Up42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7151…4404backed Down54c81.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.141241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e58…4344backed Up29c69.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.793540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed Up16c69.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+68.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Down59c68.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.276320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8739…2401backed Up46c65.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e7…f559backed Up31c56.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.044047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c8…1ed4backed Down63c52.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Down80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe04a…5377backed Down53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.