Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd584614935dd2d3761d9c885a883f03e4ce3ad537dc8c3c495f41ff20d738dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 46c | 12,137$5,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,601.28 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Up | 31c | 5,753$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,952.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Up | 27c | 5,162$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,759.26 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 66c | 4,606$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up | 16c | 4,323$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,624.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…f948backed Up | 42c | 3,700$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Up | 18c | 3,686$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 2c | 3,459$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 62c | 3,416$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.05 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Down | 78c | 3,234$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.93 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed Down | 74c | 2,680$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 49c | 2,617$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.82 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…9629backed Up | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 66c | 1,431$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.1 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Up | 8c | 1,291$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.33 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…f62ebacked Up | 17c | 1,237$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked Down | 78c | 1,208$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Up | 30c | 1,168$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +72%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Up | 37c | 1,140$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.11 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 28c | 1,125$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.98 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 54c | 1,119$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Up | 2c | 1,089$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…202bbacked Up | 3c | 1,030$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +1,626.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Down | 77c | 1,001$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6db…f4adbacked Up | 33c | 997.8$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Up | 12c | 991.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…b734backed Up | 43c | 800$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…8520backed Up | 46c | 800$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 48c | 781.53$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed Down | 54c | 760$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Up | 15c | 756$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Up | 17c | 752.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Up | 6c | 701.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4594backed Down | 74c | 699.98$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…81c4backed Down | 13c | 697.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…2a8abacked Up | 20c | 554.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +181%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Up | 26c | 532.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Down | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…9c2dbacked Down | 26c | 500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Up | 3c | 500$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Up | 4c | 474.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.78 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Up | 40c | 469.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…7f2fbacked Down | 36c | 451.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 3c | 439.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.49 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 76c | 419.11$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.79 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 28c | 417.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.54 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Up | 38c | 410$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Up | 5c | 367.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.66 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 62c | 332.09$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…2ab0backed Down | 55c | 321.76$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Up | 49c | 306.42$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Up | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…34c8backed Down | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Down | 40c | 298.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Down | 72c | 276.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Down | 60c | 275.39$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 33c | 263.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Up | 5c | 230$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Down | 72c | 210$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…40c3backed Down | 69c | 204.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Up | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Up | 9c | 200$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.38 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Up | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Down | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…7d86backed Down | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…8f4bbacked Down | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…f5b9backed Down | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Down | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 71c | 187.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 58c | 172.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Up | 27c | 154.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…c21abacked Up | 32c | 153$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Up | 36c | 152.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…0458backed Up | 29c | 150.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…7770backed Up | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…d7b9backed Down | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…9bd7backed Up | 42c | 138$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…2313backed Up | 18c | 130$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…b61ebacked Up | 36c | 124.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Down | 53c | 117.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Up | 16c | 111.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…bc44backed Up | 26c | 111.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9097…fa4abacked Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…c6e8backed Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358f…6602backed Up | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +382.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…fa4dbacked Up | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Down | 54c | 81.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 29c | 69.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Up | 16c | 69.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Down | 59c | 68.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8739…2401backed Up | 46c | 65.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f559backed Up | 31c | 56.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…1ed4backed Down | 63c | 52.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Down | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…5377backed Down | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.