Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5383f5a6600353e42e55ec48207c6b115f60e4a7be47fbeb48a28a367938e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 20c | 691.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 553.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 22c | 499.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 3c | 469.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 344.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 333.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…579cbacked Yes | 25c | 198.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 156.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Yes | 23c | 101.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 74.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 59.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 52.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 23c | 46.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 76c | 43.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 78c | 17.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 80c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 79c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.