Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b5f4a1790c5397483b79fe5c5f470a7b4ca1eb527771cd754af6171ecc7794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 7,270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 553.27$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 58c | 288.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 46c | 273.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7bddbacked No | 36c | 270.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 68c | 219.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 69c | 216.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 7c | 216.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 71c | 186.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 161.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 148.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 34c | 132.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…a6d9backed Yes | 79c | 122.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked Yes | 64c | 121.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 55c | 116.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 115.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed No | 23c | 101.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…670abacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…4c28backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Yes | 67c | 92.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 66c | 83.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed No | 30c | 80.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 68c | 66.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 31c | 64.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed Yes | 73c | 63.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 63.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 76c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…9d57backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed Yes | 64c | 45.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Yes | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 41.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 40.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…7d2cbacked Yes | 67c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 34.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…6aacbacked Yes | 64c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b0…4b70backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 35c | 29.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…8274backed Yes | 55c | 26.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 52c | 26.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…f542backed Yes | 69c | 26.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 52c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.